Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami told Hawaii Public Radio’s Catherine Cruz last week, “I think ultimately I’d like to make a run for either one of the seats on the fifth floor at the state Capitol …” (either lieutenant governor or governor).
Yet just a few months ago in September, Kauai Now reported, “In cooperation with Sen. Ron Kouchi, Mayor Kawakami has declared with the Hawaii Spending Commission that he intends to run for Hawaii Senate District 8 in 2026,” Dan Giovanni, Chair of Friends of Derek Kawakami.
Perhaps the most revealing statement in the HPR interview was Kawakami saying, “I’m not one to buck the system or take people out. I’m more of somebody that’s always just been more patient, and take a look for what window of opportunity is going to open.”
Translation: He’s cut a deal with Senator Kouchi, and will run for Kouchi’s Kauai Senate seat (with Kouchi’s support) in 2026, and Kouchi will run for mayor (endorsed by Kawakami).
Kouchi ran for mayor in 2002, falling 1,657 votes short, and losing to Bryan Baptiste.
Further guessing and speculation: Kawakami will then sit comfortably in the Kauai Senate seat awaiting the 2030 election cycle when both the lieutenant governor and the governor’s seata are “open.”
Still further wild-card guessing and total speculation: Recently re-elected to a 6-year term, U.S. Sen. Mazie Hirono, who is 77, will one day retire. When she does, all hell will break loose on the political front.
Everybody and their mother will be seeking to take her place including but not limited to: Rep. Jill Tokuda, L.G. Sylvia Luke, and perhaps even Gov. Josh Green. To be clear there will be many names on this list (including a Republican or two) … but I’ll leave that speculation for another day.
Should Sen. Hirono retire “between elections,” Hawaii law says, “Pending the election, the governor makes a temporary appointment to fill the vacancy by selecting a person from a list of three prospective appointees submitted by the same political party as the prior incumbent.”
Such a retirement could be planned and timed in advance to “protect the seat” and assure whoever assumes the position is “the right person,” or the retirement could be sudden and unplanned due to health or other unforeseen circumstances.
Taking the speculation even further down the rabbit hole: Gov. Green could in theory appoint himself to the U.S. Senate seat, triggering the ascension of Lt. Gov. Luke to be governor. The Senate president by law would then assume the lieutenant governor’s seat.
Big deep breathe: Let’s set the speculation aside for a moment and get back to what we actually know to be true.
Mayor Kawakami has said publicly he wants to be the governor or lieutenant governor of Hawaii but has filed a campaign spending report stating he intends to run for the State Senate District 8 (Kauai).
Sen. Kouchi who presently represents District 8 has supported Kawakami’s fundraising efforts. In 2002 Kouchi ran for Kauai mayor and lost.
Former Mayor, now Councilmember Bernard Carvalho, and Kauai Council Chair (and former mayoral candidate) Mel Rapozo are both likely considering a 2026 mayoral run.
It’s important to remember that no one ever simply retires or voluntarily steps down. Politicians tend to stay in office until they lose an election or pass away.
So it seems one likely scenario is Kouchi, Carvalho and Rapozo in a 3-way race for mayor and Kawakami walks into the Kauai State Senate seat, and waits patiently there for his chance to move to the fifth floor.
But of course anything could happen. Sen. Hirono’s plans are a wild card, as are the political aspirations of other possible Kauai candidates including incumbent Councilmember Arryl Kaneshiro and former Councilmember Mason Chock.
Yes — it’s fun to speculate.
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Gary Hooser served eight years in the state Senate, where he was majority leader. He also served for eight years on the Kauai County Council. He presently writes on Hawaii policy and politics at www.garyhooser.blog.
