HONOLULU — As drought continues to expand and intensify, Hawai‘i can expect more wildfires to occur across the isles the rest of this summer.
In its seasonal outlook issued Aug. 1, the National Interagency Fire Center said Hawai‘i can expect “above normal significant fire potential” from now through October, particularly on the Leeward side.
Since late June, the center noted, drought conditions have increased significantly across all the isles.
The U.S. Drought Monitor as of Thursday showed about 53 percent of the isles was in moderate to extreme drought. All of O‘ahu is in moderate to severe drought, while South Maui is now in extreme drought.
Moderate to severe drought has also hit parts of Maui and Hawai‘i Island, and the south side of Kaua‘i.
These drought conditions are expected to worsen over the next three months, NIFC said, due to below-normal rainfall and near- to above-normal temperatures, resulting in the availability of more live fuels to ignite and burn.
“The one wildcard will be tropical systems, which can either provide some rainfall relief or provide conditions conducive to fire,” said the NIFC. “During developing La Ninas the East Pacific is generally not as active.”
Already, Hawai‘i firefighters this summer have been busy battling several large wildfires on Kaua‘i and Maui, some of which prompted evacuations.
On Friday afternoon, a 5-acre fire broke out near Ka Makana Ali‘i shopping center, resulting in the temporary closure of Kapolei Parkway. Though no homes were lost and the fire was contained a few hours later, it was frightening for area residents.
Honolulu firefighters on Saturday also battled a number of smaller wildland fires on O‘ahu.
National Weather Service meteorologist Tom Birchard agreed conditions will continue to ripen for wildfires through the rest of summer.
The dry season kicked into high gear during June, after the wettest May in over 30 years, according to recent rainfall summaries. Most rain gauges across Hawaii have been below average for June and July, without much relief in sight.
“The Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone has been slower, quieter than normal,” he said.
With the onset of La Nina, which is expected to arrive sometime between September and November, there is generally below-average hurricane activity in the Eastern Pacific, which can affect Hawai‘i.
“Those remnants can sometimes end up over the islands about a week after they dissipate and bring needed rainfall,” he said.
But the slower tropical cyclone season means even less of that rainfall for the dry season, which lasts through September.
The National Weather Service has not yet issued any fire watches or red flag warnings this summer, according to Birchard, but is monitoring conditions closely.
NWS issues a red flag warning — which was issued in the days prior to the Aug. 8, 2023, wildfires — when certain criteria in Hawai‘i are met, which includes a particular level of drought, relative humidity of 45 percent or less and strong wind of generally 20 mph or greater.
The warning means gusty wind, combined with low relative humidity and dry fuels, can contribute to extreme fire behavior, and if fires develop, they will likely spread rapidly.
After the Maui wildfires, NWS Honolulu revised its wording to reach a broader audience, he said, whereas previous warnings were more geared toward land management agencies.
The warnings now suggest actions such as “avoid use of power tools outdoors that may generate sparks” and “do not park on dry vegetation.”
Across the U.S., meanwhile, firefighters are battling more than 80 large, active wildfires in multiple states, according to the NIFC.
One of them, the Park Fire, which started on July 24 due to suspected arson east of Chico, California, has now surpassed 420,000 acres and is the fourth-largest fire in California history.
Firefighters are also battling wildfires in Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, Utah and Colorado.
