HONOLULU — Most Hawai‘i political leaders welcomed President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race and swiftly expressed support for his replacement pick of Vice President Kamala Harris, but it’s still unclear whether these historic events will energize Hawai‘i voters enough to affect local elections.
Colin Moore, a political scientist at the University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization, said Hawai‘i historically has not experienced keen competition when it comes to presidential elections, and Sunday’s developments “won’t dramatically change the situation here. But it does inject more excitement into the race across the country, and that will probably mean some additional excitement here.”
Moore said Harris will enjoy increased support primarily among people of color, progressives and younger voters, which “may do a little bit to boost our turnout here. I don’t think it’s going to be dramatic, but no matter what, a change in the nominee this late in the process, which of course has never happened before, will generate a lot more interest in the race, and there’s been so little.
“Hawai‘i, more than anywhere else, we’ve had a very unexciting election year this year,” he added, and a livelier presidential election could lead to higher voter turnout with implications for local races, too.
Political analyst Neal Milner said the present political turmoil might “cause people to pay more attention,” but was cautious about saying whether that would translate into higher voter turnout.
And while the situation might stimulate interest from younger Hawai‘i voters, Milner said that “interest is one thing, and consequences of the interest are another.” So even if a Harris campaign makes them more likely to vote, it’s highly unlikely to change the outcome of Hawai‘i elections for Congress or the presidency since voters here strongly pull Democratic rather than Republican.
Former Hawai‘i Gov. Neil Abercrombie, who along with former Govs. John Waihee and Ben Cayetano had called for Biden to withdraw his bid for a second term following his poor debate performance against former Republican President Donald Trump, praised the president Sunday for “putting the nation before himself.”
He said he expects Harris will galvanize Democratic voters.
“There will be a massive wave of energy and focus on the part of the Democratic Party, and the volunteer effort will be enormous and instantaneous,” said Abercrombie, who served in the U.S. House of Representatives prior to running for governor. “It’s already happening. I’ve been in contact with people across the country already. It’s rolling.”
Gov. Josh Green, who was scheduled to co-host a Biden fundraiser on Martha’s Vineyard, Mass., on July 29, said the event will go forward, “though we are working on logistics and need to get some input from leadership.”
“We have an incredible vice president who is ready to lead the country forward. She has the experience, the energy and the vision to carry the Democratic Party to victory in November,” he said. “Kamala Harris has my support, endorsement and friendship and I look forward to helping her team win this critical election for every American.”
Green also made a point of thanking Biden for his service, especially for his support in the aftermath of the Aug. 8, 2023, Maui wildfires.
“On behalf of the state of Hawai‘i, especially the residents of Maui, I express our forever gratitude to President Biden for granting wildfire disaster relief within an unprecedented six hours of our making the request in a time of our people’s deepest need,” Green said.
Three members of Hawaii’s congressional delegation, all Democrats — Sens. Brian Schatz and Mazie Hirono, and Rep. Jill Tokuda — also endorsed Harris in statements released Sunday. Tokuda, like Green, mentioned the president’s support for Maui.
“I will never forget when he came to Maui following the devastating fires that destroyed Lahaina. He committed the full weight and force of the federal government behind our recovery efforts, but what really struck me was the way he genuinely connected with our people. He held their hands, he listened, and he gave people hope,” she said.
“Last week when I spoke with him, he again asked about Maui, and asked how the administration could help. He has always been there for us and is a true friend to Hawai‘i. It took great courage to do what he has done, and it is an example of how Joe Biden always puts country first. I have nothing but the sincerest aloha for him.”
Schatz praised Biden for more than half a century of public service.
“It’s not an overstatement to say Joe Biden has been and is the most consequential president of our lifetimes. His legislative accomplishments speak for themselves and will endure for generations to come. He took the biggest climate action in human history,” Schatz said.
“He cut the cost of prescription drugs for seniors and made our communities safer by passing long-overdue gun reform. He’s also revitalized our nation’s infrastructure and strengthened our alliances around the world.”
While lauding Biden, the fourth member of Hawai‘i’s congressional delegation, U.S. Rep. Ed Case, said he was not ready to endorse Harris.
“Words cannot fully express the moment. As he has all his life, as have our greatest leaders, President Biden put his country before himself,” said Case in a statement on Sunday.
“I am deeply grateful for his service, especially to our Hawai‘i, and will continue to work fully with him and his administration throughout his term. The path ahead is difficult and I will take some limited time to discuss with my constituents and colleagues the best way forward on a Democratic nominee.”
Cayetano said history will be kind to Biden because during “the first three years he accomplished a lot.” He expressed the need for Democrats to rally together but said he too wants more time before endorsing a replacement candidate.
“I think the nomination should be an open nomination (as) there may be others who want to compete also and they should be considered,” Cayetano said. “But whoever gets the nomination, I think that Democrats need to unite behind that person and make sure that Trump doesn’t get elected.”
Tamara McKay, state chair of the Hawai‘i Republican Party, said Biden’s decision underscores the need for new leadership in America.
“The Hawai‘i Republican Party commends President Joe Biden for his decision to withdraw from the race for a second term, recognizing that it is in the best interest of the country and his own well-being,” said McKay, who attended last week’s GOP convention in Milwaukee where Trump was formally nominated.
“Under President Biden’s leadership, our nation has faced significant challenges and hardships, making it clear that a change in leadership is necessary for the betterment of all Americans,” she said.
“The Hawai‘i Republican Party believes that the country is in need of change, strength, and a renewed sense of purpose. The Democratic Party has failed the people with their divisive tactics and ineffective policies, and it is time for a new direction for our nation.”
