In recent years, we haven’t always gotten the two teams that seemed destined for the World Series to actually end up in the Fall Classic. Some of the lower payroll squads or Wild Card darlings have crashed the event as the more likely teams went home earlier than expected.
This year is different. The best team in the American League all season has been the Boston Red Sox. The best team in the National League (when healthy) has been the Los Angeles Dodgers. They are the two highest payrolls in baseball, they have the most star power and two huge markets, so it’s really Major League Baseball’s dream matchup.
Houston-Milwaukee just wouldn’t have had the cache that Boston-Los Angeles does.
What makes this series so intriguing is how similar the two teams are. When you look at the strengths and weaknesses of each, many mirror one another. Both can have dominant starting pitching, but questions marks have persisted in terms of postseason success for three of the major players — L.A.’s Clayton Kershaw and Boston’s David Price and Chris Sale. Kershaw’s 2018 postseason has been much like the rest of his career, the good and bad have been about equal in measure (9-8, 4.09 ERA entering Tuesday). That’s a stark contrast from his historically great regular season career numbers (153-69, 2.35 ERA).
Price is just 3-9 with a 5.04 ERA over 20 career postseason starts, though he enters the World Series with some positive momentum after a great effort in Game 5 of the ALCS. He’s 143-75 with a 3.25 ERA in the regular season.
Sale is the best left-hander in baseball, surpassing Kershaw this season. But he is rather untested in the playoffs and the little we have seen has been less than stellar (5.85 ERA entering the World Series). The Red Sox limited his action down the stretch in order to have him right for October, but he’ll need to be at the top of his game. Boston can’t have any questions in Sale starts. They must rely on his brilliance and really can’t afford to lose a game in which he appears.
Bullpens have been a strength for both, especially their closers. Kenley Jansen didn’t have as dominant a season as he had in 2016 and 2017, but he was still one of baseball’s most reliable ninth-inning options. In the playoffs he’s been virtually unhittable again, going 6.2 innings and surrendering only two hits with 10 strikeouts through NLCS play.
Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel has had an opposite trend. He was fantastic in the regular season and made his third straight All-Star appearance. But the playoffs have been unsteady to say the least. He had five saves in Boston’s first seven wins, but he allowed 12 base runners and five earned runs in those five appearances. If he continues to struggle against the Dodgers’ opportunistic lineup, that ninth-inning drama could be a huge part of this series.
Defensively, Boston’s outfield is unmatched throughout the Major Leagues when they have Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts out there. But the Dodgers come closer than most. Yasiel Puig covers a ton of ground in right field and has a world-class arm. Chris Taylor made a phenomenal and potentially series-saving catch in Game 7 against the Brewers. Cody Bellinger has turned himself into a very serviceable center fielder when he’s out there.
On the infield, the Dodgers probably have a slight edge with their left side tandem of Justin Turner and Manny Machado. But Boston second baseman Ian Kinsler may be the best defensive infielder for either side and he solidifies the one weak link in the Red Sox armor.
These teams deserve to be where they are. I was wrong about both in the last round. I thought Houston would return to the World Series and I thought Milwaukee’s momentum and bullpen would be just enough to get them there, as well. But Boston and Los Angeles showed why they were the favorites from day one.
Both have proven to be deep, to be clutch and are well managed. It’s going to be a really good series with momentum swings and late-inning drama. I believe that Boston is the slightly — only slightly — more complete team of the two.
Sox in six.
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David Simon can be reached at dsimon@thegardenisland.com.
