LIHU’E – Odds are hurricanes will be staying away from Kaua’i’s shores during the current hurricane season. National Weather Service forecasters are saying the current hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, is one in which weak-to-moderate
LIHU’E – Odds are hurricanes will be staying away from Kaua’i’s shores during the current hurricane season.
National Weather Service forecasters are saying the current hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, is one in which weak-to-moderate El Nino conditions are expected to develop.
El Nino conditions include warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures, and the chance of late-season storms, explained Thomas A. Heffner, warning coordination meteorologist with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and Forecast Office in Honolulu.
On Kaua’i to deliver a hurricane informational briefing attended by county, state, federal, hospital, hotel and disaster-response personnel in the Civil Defense Emergency Operation Center Monday, Heffner said the prediction of six to seven tropical cyclones in the Pacific this season is consistent with other years where weak-to-moderate El Nino conditions existed.
On average, the central Pacific gets between four and five tropical cyclones a season (one hurricane, two tropical storms and 1.5 tropical depressions).
Though the number of storms predicted this season is higher than normal, it is less than history has shown occur in the central Pacific during strong El Nino years.
In those years, most recently 1982, 1992, 1994 and 1997, between 10 and 11 storms have been generated in the central Pacific, including Hurricane ‘Iwa in 1982 and Hurricane ‘Iniki in 1992. Both did devastating damage to Kaua’i.
The National Weather Service is taking the opportunity to promote preparedness at the same time announcing a storm season more active than normal, he said.
“We still have to be ready, like every year,” said Heffner, adding that Kaua’i has lots of new residents who didn’t experience the last two hurricanes, and other residents who don’t understand the importance of preparedness, or plain don’t care to prepare at all.
The recipe for tropical cyclones includes warm seas, weak vertical wind shear, and low-level disturbances like thunderstorms that allow the cyclones to feed off the heat from the storms.
Tropical cyclones include towers of thunderstorms, too, continually forming and dissipating, and for all the damage hurricanes can inflict, the slightest variance in conditions can easily signal their demise, he said.
“It’s actually a very delicate weather system.”
Among the reasons ‘Iniki struck in 1992 was that normal tradewind weather patterns disappeared, allowing the hurricane to move northward as opposed to the normal east-to-west pattern, he continued.
Where preparedness is concerned, people need to understand the “triple threat” of dangers that accompanies a hurricane: storm surge and high surf; high winds; and heavy rain and flash flooding, he said.
Those in coastal areas are at the highest risk of death and injury, because of the combination of storm surge and high surf, and likely will be ordered to evacuate in the event of an approaching hurricane, he said.
And, if a storm comes, don’t focus only on where the eye of the storm is located, because damaging high surf can be generated by a storm 100 miles away, and huge surf has been generated by storms that don’t even come very close to the islands, he stressed.
Everyone should assess risks before storms arrive, evacuate before conditions worsen if you live or work near streams or other flood-prone areas, and prepare for storms before they arrive, he added.
People will prepare at their own pace, he noted.
The National Weather Service advises people to have working flashlights, battery-powered radios, extra batteries, nonperishable food and water to last at least two weeks, and be prepared for a storm, including route and necessary items to take if evacuation is ordered.
Heffner likes addressing Kaua’i groups, because they’re not skeptical about the need for hurricane preparedness, he said. In fact, he uses Kaua’i people as an example of a group that understands the need for annual hurricane preparedness when he speaks to other groups around the state.
The Garden Island will publish its annual Emergency Preparedness Handbook this Saturday, June 29.
Staff Writer Paul C. Curtis can be reached at mailto:pcurtis@pulitzer.net or 245-3681 (ext. 224).
