Like a champion boxer avoiding a title fight with an up-and-coming challenger, Democratic Sen. Daniel Akaka has spent much of his primary campaign bobbing and weaving around the question of whether he’ll debate U.S. Rep. Ed Case. Today, Akaka is
Like a champion boxer avoiding a title fight with an up-and-coming challenger, Democratic Sen. Daniel Akaka has spent much of his primary campaign bobbing and weaving around the question of whether he’ll debate U.S. Rep. Ed Case.
Today, Akaka is set to meet that question head-on.
The Akaka campaign will announce this morning whether Akaka will accept a debate with Case.
The announcement is set to come after weeks of heavy criticism by Case, who has said that Akaka’s refusal to debate has deprived voters of the opportunity to judge the candidates in a side-by-side appearance.
The candidates have appeared together once, at a Hawai‘i Publishers Association luncheon at the Dole Cannery Ballroom on O‘ahu last Tuesday. The event was not a debate, however, as each candidate spoke separately and then answered questions from the audience.
According to Ira Rohter, an associate professor of public policy at the University of Hawai‘i at Monoa, Akaka’s status as Goliath and Case’s as David makes Akaka’s reluctance to debate understandable.
“The classic reason an incumbent doesn’t debate is because he doesn’t want to give his challenger publicity,” Rohter said.
But Rohter cautioned that Case may be gaining support from the public by repeatedly challenging Akaka.
“At some point, (the Akaka campaign) may realize that refusing to debate Case is taking too big of a bite out of Akaka’s popularity,” Rohter said.
With the primary election less than 40 days away, Case officials point to a Rasmussen Reports telephone poll of 500 likely voters that shows Akaka leading Case 47 percent to 45 percent, with a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.
The poll also shows that the Democratic primary will likely decide the general election, as both Case and Akaka would easily defeat Republican candidate Jerry Coffee, who may drop out of the race due to health problems.
But Akaka campaign manager Andy Winer says the methodology behind the Rasmussen poll is flawed, and that Akaka’s lead over Case is larger than the poll indicates.
Winer said Rasmussen erred by polling likely voters, not likely Democratic primary voters.
“If you look back historically at who you expect to show up on Sept. 23, it’s likely Democratic primary voters,” Winer said.
He said if you then adjust the math for the poll, figuring that 30 percent of those polled are Republicans who can’t vote in the Democratic primary, and that these voters are more likely to support Case, then the poll shows Akaka leading by a comfortable margin.
Winer’s analysis is consistent with other statewide polls, which show Akaka with a double-digit lead over Case.
The OmniTrak Group in Honolulu released a poll conducted in late July and early August that had Akaka at 55 percent, Case at 35 percent and 10 percent undecided. The poll interviewed 399 likely Democratic primary voters and had a margin of error of 5 percentage points.
The Honolulu Advertiser also conducted a poll of 342 likely Democratic primary voters in early July that had Akaka at 51 percent, Case at 40 percent and 9 percent undecided. The poll had a margin of error of 5.3 percentage points.
Nevertheless, Rohter said support for Case may be stronger than people think.
“I’ve observed that a lot of people support Case quietly,” Rohter said. “They’re afraid to put up bumper stickers or signs because Akaka has been around for so long that you’re expected to support him.”
Rohter compared the contest to the 1970 election for state governor in which Hawai‘i Gov. Jack Burns defeated Lt. Gov. Tom Gill.
Rohter said that like Gill, Case is the underfunded upstart facing an uphill battle against the established state political machine.
To defeat Akaka, Case must overcome his lack of funding compared to Akaka, as well as attempts by the Akaka campaign to pigeonhole Case as the conservative candidate, Rohter said.
Akaka, who has been an outspoken critic of the conflict in Iraq since its start, has emphasized his opposition to the Bush Administration throughout the campaign.
“There’s a great deal of discontent with Bush Administration policies, and voters are looking for an alternative voice, which is certainly something that Sen. Akaka presents,” Winer said.
Akaka wants to bring U.S. troops home by July 2007, while Case believes setting a specific timetable for troop withdrawal defeats the goal of securing a stable Iraq.
Former Democratic presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich, whose conservationist policies are popular in Hawai‘i, recently campaigned for Akaka on Maui, The Big Island and O‘ahu.
“Kucinich’s visit was a real shot in the arm for our campaign,” Winer said.
Kucinich finished second in Hawai‘i’s Democratic presidential caucus in 2004, and even carried the 2nd Congressional District, Winer said.
In another boost for the Akaka campaign, Sen. Daniel Inouye gave $300,000 of his campaign money to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which is also supporting Akaka.
• Steven Stein, editorial intern, can be reached at 245-3681 or sstein@kauaipubco.com.
