Hawaii has been subjected to a series of earth-shattering, paradigm-shifting challenges in this century — a Great Recession, COVID-19, the Lahaina wildfire, federal turmoil. Each causes lasting ripple effects, and one of those effects has been an outflow of Hawaii-born people from the state.
That could be changing. Though too soon to know if it’s a lasting trend, Census data indicates that in 2023, 12,100 Hawaii-born people ages 25 to 44 — prime working years — returned home, even as 6,400 moved away. That is a significant shift, and cause for optimism, by economic standards: Adults in this age group are generally focused on job opportunities and a stable home to raise a family — as well as entrepreneurship, politics or other ways to make their mark.
An inflow of young adults has the potential to grow the labor force and tax base, and to spur overall economic growth. Additionally, these adult workers can be the source of new ideas and vitality, in the economy and society, and this can surely benefit Hawaii.
Before COVID-19, the trend was very different. Beginning in 2019, more people left Hawaii than came in. And for many more years, more Hawaii-born people left than returned.
An optimistic view of this turnaround has it that Hawaii-born people in the prime of their life must be returning because they see a future here — and that’s a development that must be nurtured.
Some credit should be given to Hawaii’s welcoming nature, of course. For some returnees, perhaps the increasingly volatile politics and economic uncertainty on the mainland make Hawaii’s grass look greener. But it will take energy — involvement — and good ideas to make the vision of Hawaii as the place to be a reality.
Post-COVID, state leaders and the Legislature have come to crucial clarity on state needs that should be considered basic: a minimum wage that reflects Hawaii’s cost of living; access to broadband internet service for all residents, urban and rural; access to child care; a public education system that equips Hawaii’s students with the knowledge and ability to work and thrive in a changing world.
Counties, too, have been taken to high alert, raising awareness of the need for housing and changed housing rules, community services to build resilience, and accountability for making life livable for kamaaina.
As people return to Hawaii because of these advances, that must reinforce commitment to press through on these goals.
At state and county levels, we need departments infused with creative energy to make things right — to attend to problems and find solutions. That has been shown to be missing in the lead-up to the Lahaina fire: The failure to recognize and remedy the risks created by leaving ag lands dry and covered in invasive, fire-friendly grasses is just one, glaring example of the danger in complacency.
Complacency can be enabled— or rooted out — by the actions of those at the top echelons of government. Too often, executives pronounce goals (a diversified economy, anyone?) without an accompanying plan of action and benchmarks for execution. And too often, the Legislature drops issues unresolved, leaving matters hanging: wage laws, the “green fee” climate tax, payments due on ceded lands, controlling axis deer — or year after year, enacts laws (fireworks comes to mind) without a workable plan. That’s no way to run a government, or an enlightened society.
By looking to the needs of a next generation in this state, governments (and the private sector) can treat the challenges Hawaii has faced in this century as catalysts for change.
We know, now, that priority attention must be given to the economic prospects and quality of life for island families. Affordable housing, jobs, health care, education — these must be managed for islanders’ benefit. And our approach to tourism must continue to evolve, embracing the potential in destination management and a residents-first mindset.
Lahaina will be a proving ground for our ability to take action and do it right: Maui County must facilitate work toward a common vision, and leaders must step forward to illuminate the way. Water, housing for workers, a rebuilding that recognizes Hawaiian history — these challenges can’t be ignored and must be solved.
It’s significant that both Gov. Josh Green and Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi have not shied away from making decisions and accepting accountability for meeting measurable goals, such as building out the kauhale system and providing a continuum of care; getting rail and transit-oriented development closer to the finish line; or focusing on affordable housing.
The hope is that returning residents, with their strong connections to the islands and exposure to different ways of solving problems, will provide the energy and support to sustain problem-solving governments, into the next generation, and the next.
