If there is any good news on the local front from the job cuts pursued by President Donald Trump’s administration, it’s the proportion of federal labor here that comprises civilian defense jobs, such as employment at the Pearl Harbor Naval Shipyard.
It’s too early to expect a clear forecast, but at least for now, that sector is not expected to be among the chief targets in the broad remaking of the federal workforce that has generated upheaval across the country.
What is clear is that Hawaii should work to blunt the impact of any losses that do emerge, and it may have the opportunity to do so through all the job openings currently going unfilled.
Estimates of the current number of federal jobs have ranged between 25,000 and 35,000, and nationally, roughly 12% of the federal civilian workforce has been affected so far. Economists here have anticipated impacts to top out closer to 10%. In addition, a number of state and local unfilled positions may allow for a softer landing for workers who are turned away from their federal jobs.
This entire process has been anything but predictable, though, so there’s still good reason for anxiety among those worried about their job security. Further, there could be economic ripple effects on companies depending on federal contracts that could be canceled, as well as collateral damage to businesses that good-paying federal jobs help to support.
So the aim of state and county leadership should be plain: Offset job losses by filling government vacancies here.
That may be easier said than done. For one thing, there’s the sheer volume: About 5,000 state civil service posts, excluding teacher jobs, were vacant, said Elena Murayama, of the state Department of Human Resources Development. And at the City and County of Honolulu, the vacancy count stood at around 2,000 jobs in civil service.
Both at the state and local level, Hawaii governance has had a record of delays in filling positions. In some cases, this is because of hiring competition in certain fields, such as health care. For example, staffing shortages delayed the full opening of the Hawaii State Hospital.
The city has grappled with this problem, too. In 2022 the city confronted about 3,000 vacancies out of 11,600 total positions across the county; according to a study that year, it was taking an average of six months for the city to hire employees. Mayor Rick Blangiardi set a 90-day deadline to cut that processing time in half. The campaign had modest success.
The positive spin on all this is that with some number of federal workers added to the local labor pool, recruitment could be much easier. Part of the problem is that Hawaii’s high cost of living is a deterrent to candidates living in mainland states, and these would be job-seekers who are settled here and likely want to stay.
The negative side? Potential hits to federal dollars in local coffers. Carl Bonham, director of the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, pointed to anticipated cuts as constraints to local government hiring capacity.
And already, Gov. Josh Green wants to reduce the vacancies by eliminating posts unfilled for more than four years to free up state funds for other needs, of which there are many. Clearly, there are fiscal barriers to be considered.
However, this is the optimal moment for state and county leaders to take a hard look at where there could be a match between the skills of those seeking work and the islands’ most critical jobs to fill. Once it’s known what the impact will be — and everyone hopes it’s light — leaders should help make the transitions as easy as possible.
