Long voter lines of mostly Republicans delay tally

Long lines of people — overwhelmingly Republicans — who exercised their right to vote in person and even register to vote all day and night Tuesday delayed the release of election votes past midnight Wednesday, the longest delay in Hawaii voting history, said Hawaii Elections Chief Scott Nago.

So-called voter service centers on every island except Molokai could not close by 7 p.m., as scheduled, to accommodate everyone who was in line by 7 p.m., as required by state law, Nago said.

They stood for hours, often in the rain, adding up to 39,156 people who voted in person before or on Election Day.

Their numbers, once again, were overwhelmed by the 409,671 voters who continue to prefer mail-in ballots.

Overall the election turnout of 448,827 voters — whether by mail or in person — accounted for just 52.1 of Hawaii’s 860,868 registered voters.

Although the number of people who continue to vote in person remains relatively small, Nago and Rex Quidilla, administrator for the Honolulu Office of Elections, had warned voters in advance to expect long lines on Election Day that would delay the release of election results, just as they had in the 2022 election after Trump instructed his supporters to ignore early and mail-in voting.

Sen. Brenton Awa (R, Kaneohe-Laie-Mokuleia) won reelection and was the last person in Hawaii to vote after standing in line for five hours at Kapolei Hale, Nago said.

State Rep. Diamond Garcia (D, Ewa-Kapolei) had voted in person before Election Day but joined Awa in line for about an hour to keep him company, Garcia said.

According to Garcia, who also won reelection, “95 percent” of the voters who waited in line “were Republicans.”

He and Tamara McKay, Hawaii Republican Party chair, said they hope that Wednesday’s final tally of the last remaining 18,000 votes still being counted Wednesday would tighten four close House races enough to trigger automatic recounts that could lead to four additional Republican victories.

For instance, incumbent House Republican Elijah Pierick (R, Royal Kunia- Waipahu-Honouliuli) lost to Democratic challenger Corey Rosenlee to represent District 39 by just 71 votes — 4,476 for Rosenlee and 4,405 for Pierick.

But recounts can only be triggered when the vote difference is less than “100 votes or one-quarter of 1 percent, whichever is lesser,” Nago said.

He acknowledged that the last ballots could lead to recounts.

“It’s possible,” he said.

If Rosenlee ends up winning, Republicans would lose one of their six minority members in the 51-member House, with half of them representing increasingly conservative West Oahu, including Pierick, Garcia and Rep. David Alcos III (R, Ocean Pointe-Barbers Point), who also won reelection.

But McKay and Garcia said they hope that the final ballots end up benefiting Pierick and other Republican candidates, which theoretically could increase the size of their House minority caucus to a total of nine.

Sen. Kurt Fevella (R, Ewa Beach-Ocean Pointe-­Iroquois Point) also represents a West Oahu district. He and Awa are the only two Republicans in the 25-­ member Senate, but have disagreed in each of the past two legislative sessions over who should serve as minority leader after Awa was first elected.

Growing Republican support on Oahu’s Leeward side and elsewhere in the country led to a “historic” victory for former President Donald Trump, Republican control of the U.S. Senate, possible GOP control of the U.S. House, along with conservative members of the U.S. Supreme Court, Garcia said.

That mandate led to “the greatest political comeback in U.S. history,” which Democrats in the Legislature need to acknowledge, Garcia said.

“We deserve to represent our constituents who voted for us, who share our same values,” Garcia said. “I hope that a sense of true bipartisanship returns and we can have healthy debate.”

But even if Hawaii Republicans see their minority caucus grow in the House, they’re still too vastly outnumbered to have much impact on issues they and their constituents care about that might run counter to Democratic priorities, said Colin Moore, who teaches public policy at the University of Hawaii and serves as associate professor at the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization.

“If the Republicans manage to win all these close races and take nine seats, they’ll have a stronger presence than they’ve had in two decades,” Moore wrote in an email to the Honolulu Star-Advertiser.

“That added clout could allow them to push harder on shared priorities, but realistically, they’re still a small minority in a heavily Democratic House,” Moore said. “They will also need to overcome the internal divisions within their own caucus that have rendered them ineffective in the past. While their numbers might give them a bit more leverage in negotiations and perhaps more visibility on specific issues, it won’t translate into substantial legislative power. Hawai‘i Democrats hold an overwhelming majority, so Republicans will have to rely on collaboration rather than confrontation to make an impact.”

He agreed that Republicans do share several Democratic priorities to help reduce Hawaii’s cost of living to stem the exodus of people leaving, notably Native Hawaiians who now comprise fewer Hawaiians across the islands than on the mainland.

Likely incoming House Speaker Nadine Nakamura (D, Hanalei-Princeville-­Kapaa) said Democrats and Republicans agree on several issues, such as historic tax cuts passed last session and ongoing efforts also designed to lower the cost of living for local residents and families, including making child care affordable and reducing the need for 50,000 more affordable homes across the state.

There has been bipartisan support on other issues, including “rethinking density, rethinking zoning codes,” Nakamura said.

Even if Republicans add to their House caucus, Nakamura said, “it’s an incremental change. It’s not a mandate but we will definitely listen to the concerns they make.”

In the end, Nakamura said it will be up to the Democratic majority to “decide what’s best for our state and we’ll move forward” while “trying to be collaborative.”

“I do think Nakamura is right,” Moore wrote. “Despite significant differences on social issues, both parties agree that affordable housing and the high cost of living are the state’s biggest challenges. I’m sure we’ll see some bipartisan agreement here. If Republicans want to show their constituents that they’re making progress, they’re going to need to partner with Democrats on these bills.”

Even before Election Day, 11 new legislators already were going to be sworn in when the next legislative session begins in January. Potential recounts could add even more freshmen.

The incoming freshman class will include newly elected Democratic Rep. Mike Lee, who will represent Kailua and parts of Kaneohe Bay in a sign that voter demographics may be changing in Kailua after years of reelecting former Rep. Cynthia Thielen, a moderate Republican.

“I think it is still a moderate district,” Lee said. “But people moving into Kailua over the last 10, 15 years represent a new democratic of people not buying $1.5 million, three- bedroom homes. The demographic leans left.”

During COVID-19, all of Kailua’s emergency shelters were ruled unsuitable during a disaster because they either had too much glass to be safe during high winds or too much wood in a fire emergency, Lee said.

Without any emergency shelter in Kailua, Lee said “that is a tragic thing waiting to happen.”

He knows Nakamura and said she would be a good House speaker and wants to help support the efforts to reduce the cost of living in Hawaii. He’s married with two school-age boys.

Moore said that changing political preferences are happening dramatically in some districts, among both Democrats and Republicans, including incoming progressive Democrats who won their first legislative victories, possibly testing the new House speaker’s ability to hold the Democratic caucus together, along with ongoing squabbles among Republicans that test GOP unity and have sometimes broken out in the open on the House floor.

“The turnover this cycle has been significant for sure,” Moore wrote. “What’s particularly interesting is the ideological diversity among the new legislators. We’re seeing a stronger conservative presence with some of the new and returning Republicans promoting policies championed by President-elect Trump. At the same time, there’s an influx of liberal progressives like Kim Coco Iwamoto, Tina Grandinetti and Ikaika Hussey. So, both the MAGA Republican faction and the liberal progressive faction will likely become larger. This will probably result in a more varied set of policies being discussed and debated in the legislature. It could make the Speaker’s job more challenging, but I see this as a positive development. A more ideologically diverse legislature can reflect a wider range of voices and potentially lead to more innovative solutions.”

It can sometimes take as few as 2,000 votes or even less to be elected to the state Legislature.

But the General Election vote between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris drove votes to increase in several “down ballot” local races for both Democrats and Republicans.

Awa won his first Senate race in 2022 with 8,093 votes. This year, he won with nearly 10,000 votes — 9,877.

In a handful of races, increased voter turnout still left some races tight.

“I’m not surprised they were so close, even considering the higher turnout,” Moore said. “These districts are closely divided and have a strong base of committed Republican and Democratic voters. We’re seeing a gradual shift, especially in areas like Ewa and the Leeward Coast, where many districts are trending more Republican. But it’s important to note that Hawai‘i remains a deep blue state, and Democrats continue to be competitive in nearly every district, even in those areas now leaning more Republican. The shift is ongoing, but Democrats still have a solid foothold across the state.”