State and city elections officials expect long lines of people exercising their right to vote in person — and even register to vote — on Election Day, Tuesday, reminiscent of the 2020 presidential race when voting sites across every island county could not close at 7 p.m., delaying results for the public and political candidates.
By state law, anyone eligible to vote who is in line before the scheduled 7 p.m. close of island voting locations must be allowed to vote, preventing timely results in 2020 until the last ballot was cast.
Nationally, lawsuits and other challenges over vote counts in the presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are likely to delay when America finds out who its next president will be, possibly into January when Congress is scheduled to certify the results.
Attorneys representing both the Harris and Trump campaigns already are standing by.
“There will be numerous challenges around the country, especially in states like Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania,” said Colin Moore, who teaches public policy at the University of Hawaii and serves as associate professor at the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization. “We could very well not know who the next president is the day after Election Day and lawsuits could be ongoing all the way to certification. That wouldn’t surprise me.”
In the previous 2020 presidential election, which pitted the incumbent Trump against then-former Vice President Joe Biden, 69.6% of registered voters in Hawaii cast ballots, for a total turnout of 579,784.
Some 551,036 of them — or 95% — voted by mail. Only 28,748 voted in person, representing just 5% of all votes cast.
On Oahu only 17,204 voters — or 3.1% — voted in person.
Even though their numbers were small compared to voters who overwhelmingly voted by mail, people who showed up in person held up the release of everyone’s vote count in 2020 and likely will again Tuesday.
In 2020, Moore said, “it took forever. We were just waiting, waiting, waiting.”
Those who insist on voting in person on Election Day are “primarily Republicans, not exclusively, of course,” Moore said. “They’re worried about voter fraud and that’s true across the nation in mail-in ballot states.”
In 2020, Trump urged his voters to ignore mail-in and early voting, although he “has changed his message to some extent and there is no evidence of voter fraud,” Moore said.
Only 32.3% of registered voters bothered to cast ballots in Hawaii’s August primary that lacked any marquee race.
There were no races for president, governor or lieutenant governor, and little challenge to the three members of Hawaii’s four-person congressional delegation — all Democrats — who face reelection Tuesday.
They are Sen. Mazie Hirono; Rep. Ed Case, who represents urban Honolulu; and Rep. Jill Tokuda, whose district includes rural Oahu and the neighbor islands.
Three county prosecutors ran unopposed and there was little opposition to Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi, who won in a landslide and was reelected outright in the August primary election.
Hawaii County Mayor Mitch Roth received 38% of the primary vote compared to primary challenger Kimo Alameda, who drew 28%. Alameda is a psychologist who once led Hawaii County’s Office of Aging and was CEO of the Bay Clinic Health Center.
Although Roth had a plurality of votes, he did not receive a majority to win outright like Blangiardi.
Especially compared to the apathetic primary, Moore said he “absolutely” expects a bigger turnout for Tuesday’s general election with Trump and Harris on the ballot.
With more Republicans and Democrats voting in the presidential race, higher turnout will likely affect so-called down ballot races where a handful of incumbent Republican state Senate and House members are in close races against Democratic challengers.
“Overall, Hawaii will go overwhelmingly for Harris and that could make a difference for Republican candidates,” Moore said.
But Republicans who vote for Trump across Hawaii are also likely to vote for Republicans representing their districts, even if they do not know the candidates or the issues, Moore said.
“For Republicans in close races, that’s going to benefit Republicans,” he said.
In Hawaii, a candidate can be elected to the state Legislature with as few as 2,500 or so votes.
Even with the numbers of voters expected to rise by the end of Tuesday, Moore said he would not be surprised if some candidates win with slim margins.
“Yes, I think there’s still going to be some close legislative races decided by less than 100 votes,” he said.
Several incumbents were unopposed in the primary election and won reelection outright.
But with all 51 House seats and 13 of 25 Senate seats up this year, the Legislature already will welcome at least 11 new members when it reconvenes in January and possibly more depending on what happens on Election Day.
House Democrats also will have new leadership after House Speaker Scott Saiki lost his reelection bid in the primary’s largest upset. Kim Coco Iwamoto beat Saiki in her third attempt to represent parts of downtown, Ala Moana and Kakaako and faced no general election opponent, clearing the way for her to take office in January.
Four veteran lawmakers left the Legislature at the close of the last session in May, and Rep. Cedric Gates (D, Waianae-Makaha) gave up his House seat to run for the Senate. So someone new will replace Gates in the House. Desire DeSoto won the Democratic primary and now faces Republican Chris Muraoka.
Shirley Ann Templo beat incumbent Rep. Sonny Ganaden (D, Kalihi-Kalihi Kai-Hickam Village) to represent the House District 30 seat and is facing Republican P.M. Azinga in the general election.
State Rep. Natalia Hussey-Burdick (D, Kailua-Kaneohe Bay) also lost her reelection bid in the Democratic primary, to Kailua Neighborhood Board member Mike Lee.
Lee is up against Republican Timothy Connelly, a retired Army colonel, to represent House District 50.
Newly appointed Rep. May Besario Mizuno (D, Kamehameha Heights-Kalihi Valley) lost her first election bid to Ikaika Hussey to represent House District 29 in August.
Hussey now faces Republican Carole Kaapu in the general election.
Four Republican legislators — Sen. Brenton Awa (R, Kaneohe-Laie-Mokuleia) and three first-term House members — all face Democratic challengers who won more votes in their primaries than the four Republican incumbents did in their primaries.
There are currently six Republicans in the state House and two in the Senate. So Tuesday will determine whether GOP representation in the Legislature increases or slips.
Awa won his Senate District 23 Republican primary with 2,314 votes, while his Democratic challenger, Ben Shafer, won his primary with 3,359 votes.
Rep. David Alcos III (R, Ocean Pointe-Barbers Point) won his Republican primary with 1,183 votes. His Democratic opponent, Navy veteran John Clark III, won his primary with 1,452 votes.
Rep. Elijah Pierick (R, Royal Kunia-Waipahu-Honouliuli) won his primary reelection bid to represent House District 39 with 1,151 votes. He’s being challenged by Corey Rosenlee, the former head of the powerful Hawaii State Teachers Association, who won his Democratic primary with 1,763 votes.
And Rep. Diamond Garcia (R, Ewa-Kapolei) won his Republican primary with 1,020 votes. He’s up against Anthony Paris, who won his Democratic Party primary with 1,074 votes to represent House District 42.
