On or about Oct. 11, General Election ballots will begin arriving in the mail boxes of each and every registered voter in the state. It will all be over with on Nov. 5, and by 7:30 p.m. or so we’ll know who the winners are.
Actually, we all pretty much already know who’s going to win the state and federal legislative races.
To be absolutely clear, it’s important we all show up to vote as there’s a historic presidential race at the very top of the ticket, a Kauai County Council race at the very bottom, and important Office of Hawaiian Affairs (OHA) votes to cast.
But here on Kauai anyway, there’s not much else.
In theory, all three state House races here are “contested,” but in reality that’s just not the case. Ditto for the federal races.
A quick overview of the House races, comparing the campaign status of the incumbent and the challenger, makes it pretty obvious who will win.
In House District 15 — Haena, Wainiha, Hanalei, Princeville, Kilauea, Anahola, Kealia, Kapaa, portion of Wailua, Kawaihau — Representative Nadine Nakamura (Democrat) has $91,925.80 in her campaign account, a fully functional campaign website and she’s provided her candidate statement to the State Office of Elections.
Her challenger, David Moranz (Republican) has zero money in his campaign account, does not have a campaign website, but did submit a very brief candidate statement to the Office of Elections.
In District 16 — Wailua, Hanamaulu, Kapaia, Lihue, Puhi, portion of Omao — Representative Luke Evslin (Democrat) has $7,531.97 in his campaign account, a professional looking website and he’s provided an appropriate statement to the Office of Elections.
His challenger Steve Yoder (Republican) has no website, submitted no statement and has $0.00 in his campaign account.
Last, but certainly not least, in District 17 — Niihau, portion of Omao, Koloa, Poipu, Lawai, Kalaheo, Eleele, Hanapepe, Kaawanui Village, Pakala Village, Waimea, Kekaha — Representative Dee Morikawa (Democrat) has a $16,393.01 balance in her campaign bank account. I could not locate a campaign website, but she has submitted her candidate statement to the Office of Elections.
Her challenger Michael Jauch (Republican) has $226 in the bank and that is about it — no statement, no website.
The incumbents have almost universal name recognition among Kauai voters.
Outside of their immediate circle of friends and the Republican Party, the challengers have almost zero name recognition among the general community.
Unless you make front page news regularly or spend money on advertising, signs, banners, mailings and brochures, it’s impossible to build the name recognition sufficient to win an election.
The challengers are not in the news and they have no money. They’ve not even taken the time to establish basic campaign websites, nor taken advantage of the Office of Elections “Voter Guide” to inform voters who they are and why they deserve their vote.
Caveat: I’ve searched the internet in vain attempting to locate websites for the candidates.
It’s possible they have one, but if so it’s brand new or so insignificant in scope and content that Google does not recognize it.
The financial information provided above is directly from the campaign spending commission website.
It’s against the law for any candidate to raise or spend money on campaigning without filing regular reports and disclosing this information publicly.
I’m guessing the challengers submitted their names as candidates because they didn’t want the incumbents to run unopposed, and/or they’re hoping some scandal or other unforeseen event might drag the incumbent down and grant the challengers victory on Nov. 5.
Or, it may be possible they’re expecting huge wave of MAGA Trump supporters to overwhelm the ballot boxes on election day.
Somehow, I don’t think so. I could be wrong, but I don’t think so.
