Wildfires are expected to worsen in the decades ahead in Hawai‘i

Never again.

That’s the prevailing sentiment following the one-year anniversary of the Aug. 8, 2023, wildfires on Maui, which took 102 lives, leveled the historic town of Lahaina and destroyed thousands of properties — that it can never be allowed to happen again.

But it could happen again, according to those keeping track, as increasing drought and rising temperatures continue across the globe, including in Hawai‘i.

Experts say more wildfires — and megafires, described by some as fires that burn at least 100,000 acres — are expected in coming decades, and that prevention, preparation and resilience are more important than ever.

The National Interagency Fire Center as of Saturday was tracking 83 active, large wildfires in multiple states, including the massive Park Fire, which at more than 420,000 acres is now the fourth largest in California history.

“It is very accurate to say fires have been getting, by and large, larger and more expensive and difficult to fight,” said NIFC spokesperson Rebecca Paterson. “This is a really big year for wildfires.”

Over the past decade, wildfires have burned, on average, about 7 million acres of land in the U.S., according to Paterson. So far this year, wildfires have burned more than 5 million acres of land.

In Hawai‘i, firefighters this summer have already battled several major wildland fires, including the Kaumakani Fire on Kaua‘i, which threatened 200 homes, prompting evacuations, and the Crater Road Fire on Maui, which burned 574 acres, temporarily closing the summit of Haleakala.

More wildfires

The consensus among wildfire experts is that there are bound to be more fires, and more intense fires, around the world.

“There is evidence of fires worsening around the globe,” said Abby Frazier, a climatologist and assistant professor at Clark University in Worcester, Massachusetts. “We know that temperatures are getting warmer. We see this in our trends, and I think it’s pretty fair to say it’s really hard to have an event that’s 100 percent natural at this point.”

Frazier, a former fellow at the East-West Center in Manoa, says there is a climate change signal “in everything we see.”

The Earth was scorched with 13 straight months of average heat records, a stretch that concluded last month. For California, which experienced several rounds of heat waves, July was the hottest month on record.

Frazier, who has studied rainfall in Hawaii for years, confirmed drought has gotten worse in the state over the past century.

“We actually have rainfall data for the entire state going back to 1920 and we found that drought trends have worsened over the last 100 years,” said Frazier, who earned a doctorate from the University of Hawai‘i at Manoa. “They’re lasting longer, they’re getting worse every year, and they’re occurring more frequently.”

There was a perfect storm of conditions on Aug. 8, 2023, she said, from high wind driven by Hurricane Dora’s passage to the south, relatively low humidity on top of drought, and an abundance of readily available fuel on surrounding hillsides.

Even so, she was struck by the intensity of the Maui fires in Lahaina and the Upcountry area, where 20 homes burned.

“It was really just hard to imagine a worse tragedy, honestly,” she said.

But could it happen again?

“I would like to think not,” Frazier said, “but climatically, yes, we’re going to keep seeing droughts, and they could become much more severe in the future. If we’re not paying attention to the vegetation, we could end up with conditions conducive for fire again.”

Hawai‘i is unique in that high fire-weather conditions can occur throughout the year, she said, especially on the leeward sides.

Officials now know that hurricanes bring the threats of not only floods and rain, but fires, and can cause impacts without necessarily making landfall.

Alison Nugent, an associate professor in atmospheric sciences at UH-Manoa, was one of the authors of “Fire and Rain: The Legacy of Hurricane Lane in Hawai‘i.”

The study examined the compounding hazards from Hurricane Lane in 2018, which brought floods, wind and multiple fires on Maui and O‘ahu, a harbinger of what could happen with future hurricanes.

Nugent believes another tragedy on the scale of Lahaina could very well happen again.

“I don’t see why not,” Nugent said. “It happened during Hurricane Lane, it happened last year.”

Since June, the Hawaiian Islands have been in a drying trend. Another combination of high wind accelerated by downslopes, and a spark, and it could happen again.

Greater awareness

The Maui tragedies have, no doubt, amplified awareness of Hawai‘i’s wildfire risks.

Elizabeth Pickett, co-­executive director of the Hawai‘i Wildfire Management Organization, spent 20 years struggling to raise awareness of the state’s growing wildfire problem and combating its image as a tropical landscape without risks.

To this end, the small nonprofit has published community wildfire plans detailing high-risk areas and recommended actions from West Maui to Kailua-Kona on Hawai‘i Island and more recently, East Honolulu.

It also has 20 years of fire history maps for each major Hawaiian island and plenty of educational resources on fire preparedness and prevention.

Pickett said another disastrous fire could “100 percent” happen again in Hawai‘i.

Many neighborhoods across Hawai‘i are similar to Lahaina — dense, urban or suburban areas surrounded by flammable vegetation — in many cases, with only one way in and out.

Acreage burned is not always the key factor, she said. The Lahaina fire covered only about 2,500 acres, yet it was the deadliest U.S. fire in more than a century.

After Lahaina, workshops on fire preparedness are now standing-room only.

There were about 17 recognized “Firewise” communities before Lahaina, but dozens more are interested, and that number will likely grow to 60 by the end of the year.

It has been heartening to see grassroots-level interest in the program, Pickett said, which brings neighbors together to take action, such as creating fire breaks in their community. These types of efforts can make a difference.

But statewide actions, policies and funding to prevent wildfires still fall short, and there is still much work to be done. And without funding, volunteers can only do so much.

Is Hawai‘i prepared?

Hawai‘i is not adequately prepared for another major wildfire, according to Pickett. The state is still in catch-up mode.

There have been some changes — funding for a state fire marshal, new equipment for county fire departments and changes in emergency protocols, but firefighting is actually the last line of defense against fires.

“The first line of defense is getting it safe from the start, whether it’s the landscape, built environment, reducing fire’s ability to spread, and policies supporting that,” she said.

Over 99 percent of wildfires in Hawai‘i are human-caused, either by accident or arson, according to the Hawai‘i Wildfire Management Organization, rather than natural forces such as lightning. These ignitions occur near developments, power-line rights of way and roadsides.

“We need to reduce ignitions,” she said, which includes awareness on properly putting out campfires, not parking on dry grass and avoiding illegal fireworks.

But Hawai‘i still has a persistent problem with invasive grasses that provide fuel for wildfires.

Across the state, invasive grasses cover more than 1 million acres, much of the land bordering communities, according to Clay Trauernicht, UH extension specialist in ecosystem fire.

Awareness about grasses’ role as fuel has grown, he said, but actions have been slow.

“We need some heavy-duty planning around our communities,” he said, “and ideally planning that brings everyone to the table that translates to commitment, either to take immediate action or to start managing these lands.”

There are still many “pukas,” or gaps, in the management of invasive vegetation, he said, due to a patchwork of land ownership and questions of who will do what.

After Lahaina, he is hopeful change is coming.

Communities that signed up for Firewise programs understand this, and want to be part of the solution by creating defensible space, but there’s only so much volunteers can do.

Ironically, the Hawai‘i Wildfire Management Organization has also run out of funding for the Firewise program. Although the nonprofit applied for a state grant-in-aid of $1.5 million, it got none this year.

Despite efforts, federal funding for fire risk reduction also came up pretty much empty.

Best practices

Preventing fire disasters today means being proactive rather than reactive, Pickett said. This means implementing best practices, plus having codes and enforcement in place as part of a coordinated and systemic statewide effort.

Pickett said Hawai‘i also needs to incorporate prevention into the built environment, whether it be in new projects, retrofits or redevelopments — a lesson learned from Lahaina.

“We need safer developments in subdivisions from the start,” said Pickett. “Any new developments need to have best practices, from building materials to neighborhood design, so that they follow wildfire prevention practices to reduce fire’s ability to spread. We don’t have that.”

In other fire-prone states, she said, wildland-urban interface codes, including vegetation management, are enforced. If landowners, for instance, fail to reduce fire-prone grasses, the county does it and places a lien on the property.

“A lot of states have really clear codes, and then a strong system of enforcement and expectation that those codes are met,” she said.

There have been other improvement efforts, such as the $1 million granted by the state Legislature to UH to develop a new wildfire forecast system using artificial intelligence.

This early-detection system aims to give authorities ample time to issue public warnings. The forecasts will be integrated into the National Weather System’s red-flag warning to improve overall preparedness and response capabilities.

“There’s a lot of work to be done,” Pickett said. “We know what the work is and it’s achievable.”

Increasing fires

• Over the past decade Hawai‘i experienced an annual average of over 1,000 ignitions burning more than 20,000 acres across the main inhabited islands. Fires greater than 1,000 acres have occurred on all islands. (Hawai‘i Wildfire Management Organization)

• Since 1983 the National Interagency Fire Center has documented an average of about 70,000 wildfires per year. Since the 1980s the extent of area burned each year appears to have increased. (EPA)

• Over the past 10 years an average of 3,500 structures a year have been destroyed by wildfires. (U.S. Forest Service)