HONOLULU — Four to seven tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, are predicted for the central Pacific hurricane region for the 2023 season, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Outlook released Thursday during a press conference in Honolulu.
“A near-normal season has four, or five tropical cyclones,” NOAA said in its outlook that includes input from the NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center and NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
“There is a 50 percent chance of above-normal tropical cyclone activity during the central Pacific hurricane season this year. The outlook also indicates a 35 percent chance for near-normal activity, and a 15 percent chance of a below-normal hurricane season.”
The Pacific region is broken down to include the Eastern Pacific region that borders the California/Mexico coastline, the Central Pacific region where Hawai‘i sits, and the Western Pacific region where Typhoon Mawar, according to Associated Press reports, “walloped Guam as the strongest typhoon to hit the island in over two decades.”
Typhoon Mawar, at the latest track, was on its way to Taiwan and the Philippines.
The hurricane season in the Pacific region starts June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
“Hurricane season in the central Pacific region is expected to be slightly busier this year compared to a normal season,” said Matthew Rosencrans, the NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “A key factor influencing our forecast is the predicted arrival of El Nino this summer.”
Rosencrans said El Nino typically contributes to an increase in tropical cyclone activity across the Pacific Ocean basin.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation, referred to as ENSO, is a climate pattern defined by sea surface temperature and precipitation departures from normal across the equitorial Pacific Ocean that can influence weather and climate patterns across the U.S. and around the world said the NOAA Climate.gov.
El Nino is the warm phase of ENSO when ocean temperatures are warmer and precipitation is greater than normal in the area spanning the central to eastern Pacific Ocean.
“While we are still in an ENSO-neutral phase — when no El Nino or La Nina is present — there is a 62 percent chance El Nino will develop some time between May and July,” the NOAA Climate said on its website. “This comes after nearly two continuous years of a La Nina.”
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center said the hurricane outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the central Pacific basin. It does not predict whether or how many of these systems will affect Hawai‘i.
“The last few hurricane seasons have been pretty quiet around Hawai‘i, luring some folks to let their guard down,” said Chris Benchley, director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
“Now, it’s looking like this season will be more active than the past several years. It’s more important than ever to review your emergency plan and supply kit now, so you will be prepared for the next hurricane threat.”
Forecast improvements
One of the storm preparedness practices is to track the storm when it develops, and NOAA announced new technology that will provide more and better information on the tropical cyclones.
Starting this summer, NOAA will increase its supercomputing capacity by 20 percent, allowing for more detailed, higher-resolution forecast models, advanced physics, and improved data assimilation.
Once implemented, the computing system will be able to perform 29 quadrillion calculations per second. The expansion will allow for forecast model upgrade for years to come starting with the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System.
Additionally, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will extend the forecast range of the Tropical Weather Outlook from five to seven days, this season. This seven-day outlook will provide emergency managers and communities with more time to prepare for tropical activity.
For more information, visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s website at nhc.noaa.gov.
An alternative that has been recommended during previous natural disasters by the County of Kaua‘i is to visit weather.gov/hawaii. The county’s website at kauai.gov also allows people to sign up for emergency notifications and some storm readiness tips.
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Dennis Fujimoto, staff writer and photographer, can be reached at 808-245-0453 or dfujimoto@thegardenisland.com.
