LIHUE — Kauai has a slim chance of seeing any impacts from Hurricane Erick, according to experts with the National Weather Service, but that’s not the only storm entering the Central Pacific.
The storm is turning a little more south than was initially forecasted.
Hurricane Flossie is headed toward the islands as well, with a track that’s following Erick, but currently forecasted to pass closer to the islands.
“We’re watching both of them, even though Flossie hasn’t crossed into the Central Pacific yet,” said NWS forecaster Gavin Shigesato on Tuesday afternoon.
Shigesato says Flossie is expected to cross that dividing line from the Eastern Pacific into central waters over the weekend.
“It’s following the same path as Erick right now in general,” he said.
NWS started issuing bulletins on Flossie as Tropical Depression Seven-E on Sunday, watching it as it gathered strength. Monday it had become a tropical storm and as of Tuesday at 11 a.m., NWS upgraded the storm to hurricane status and was producing gusts of 85 miles per hour.
“The cyclone is expected to be in generally favorable environmental conditions to strengthen during the next day or so,” the NWS Tuesday report on Hurricane Flossie says. “After that time, however, the sea surface temperatures beneath the hurricane gradually decrease and the wind shear is expected to increase a little.”
Those factors combined will strengthen the storm before it starts to weaken heading into the weekend — right about when it’s set to start closing in on Hawaii.
Erick took a little longer to become a hurricane. The storm was identified Saturday in the eastern pacific as “an area of disturbed weather.” By Saturday evening, Erick turned into a tropical storm and then lingered at that status until Monday evening.
“Erick has finally become a hurricane,” NWS says in their 5 p.m. Monday report on the weather pattern.
NWS also pointed out there was a significant increase in wind shear that was predicted to drastically weaken the storm sometime today or tomorrow.
On Tuesday, NWS said the hurricane strengthened significantly overnight, but the “window for further intensification appears to be small, as increased vertical wind shear lies along the forecast track.”
Forecasts show potential for tropical storm-force winds to reach the eastern part of the state in association with Erick on Thursday morning, but models don’t show those winds reaching Kauai.
“On Kauai, the probability of tropical storm-force winds is less than 5 percent right now, closer to zero right now,” Shigesato said.
Meanwhile, another storm is building in the Eastern Pacific, though with a low chance of cyclone formation as of Tuesday.
