Hurricanes show climate change
Here in Hawaii, we are aware that hurricanes are a result of warmer ocean temperatures. This, of course, is why we have hurricane seasons.
The U.S. Government’s NOAA has a list of the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin since 1851 (www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html). It also calculates a measure of the total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for each year.
If you look at a graph of the ACE since 1851 (click the blue “ACE” on that page) you will notice several things.
There is great variation from year to year in hurricane energy.
There also seems to be something like a 50-year cycle, which shows up if you graph the ten-year average ACE over time.
There is a gradual upward trend in hurricane energy over time.
This is a great source of climate change data. The climate change carbon debate has car lovers on one side and potential recipients of new tax revenues on the other. Both sides have axes to grind. This ACE information comes from a reputable and probably neutral source. It tells us about the temperatures over a broad area of the Atlantic Ocean.
I divided the 166 years in half, comparing the 83 years before 1934 to the 83 years after. I calculated a line of best fit for both periods. Before 1934, the ACE energy averaged 78 and grew by 0.414 points per year, on average. After 1934, it averaged 99 and it grew by 0.435 points per year.
For the past 300 years, we have been recovering from a mini ice age. It is no surprise to discover a warming trend over the past 166 years. But it is interesting that the warming trend since 1934 is 5 percent greater than the warming before 1934 (0.435 points versus 0.414 points).
If this difference is caused by modern human activity, we see that, due to humans, it now takes 19 years to warm the globe the amount than the previously required 20 years.
Mark Beeksma, Koloa
Proof is in the math
So…. Thinking of what it might mean to Kauai to pay $15 per hour to workers, I checked with a financial site.
Here’s the math:
$15. Per hour X 40 hours per week = $600.00 (gross) per week
Average federal taxes on weekly amt= 27.00 per week
Average HI. State taxes on weekly amt= 25.00 per week
Average FICA taxes on weekly amt = 46.00 per week
NET PAY $501.00 per week
NOTE: THIS IS WITHOUT VOLUNTARY DEDUCTIONS SUCH AS MEDICAL INSURANCE.
501.00 net pay per week X 4 weeks = $2004.00 per month net pay
For well managed finances, it is suggested that people pay no more than 33% of their net income for housing.
$2004. 00 per month X 33% = $661.00 per month.
How many places to live are there on Kauai for $661.00 per month ?
Gee whiz ! Wonder why we have a homeless problem ?
And young parents who can’t afford medical insurance for their kids? And uninsured drivers ?
And parents who have to work 4 jobs between them ? (Thank God for grandparents on Kauai doing child care.)
And workers who are too exhausted to put the kind of energy into either of their jobs that employers would like them to ?
We need to strengthen the unions again, and elect representatives who understand what it really means when workers are not paid a living wage.
Mary Mulhall, Kapaa
