One of the best days of the year is rapidly approaching. I love March Madness more than any other sporting event and Selection Sunday is when my hunger reaches a crescendo with an all-you-can-eat buffet laid out before my eyes.
One of the best days of the year is rapidly approaching. I love March Madness more than any other sporting event and Selection Sunday is when my hunger reaches a crescendo with an all-you-can-eat buffet laid out before my eyes.
Two days from now, the men’s tournament bracket will be revealed and the endless possibilities will wash over us like a double-overhead barrel. Right now, Championship Week is progressing and some bubble teams have already seen their hopes burst, while others are playing themselves into committee consideration. The top teams have all but secured a No. 1 seed – likely Florida, Wichita State and Arizona – while Villanova’s top-line inclusion is now in question after Thursday’s loss to Seton Hall.
While predicting top seeds to make a deep run certainly doesn’t take much imagination, it’s usually the correct play. But we’ve seen in recent years that lower seeds have been more prevalent in the later rounds. Whether it’s been Butler, Virginia Commonwealth or Wichita State, some teams have come from the lower lines and wound up crashing the Final Four. So before we even see the bracket or know the seedings, who are some teams that could fit that profile this year?
Pittsburgh (24-8)
The Pitt Panthers have made a habit of earning a high seed and then not living up to expectations. This year, they could flip the script. ESPN had the Panthers projected as a 10-seed after they dominated Wake Forest in Thursday’s ACC Tournament matchup. They’ll now take on scorching-hot North Carolina (23-8) in today’s quarterfinals.
After starting the year 16-1, Pitt went through some struggles during its rigorous ACC slate, but still went 11-7 in conference play. Forward Talib Zanna patrols the paint as one of the better rebounders in the ACC and Lamar Patterson is the go-to guy from all over the court, averaging 17.6 points per game and shooting over 40 percent from three-point range. It’s a typical Pitt team in that it wants to grind out victories, but coming in as an underdog could suit Jamie Dixon’s club more than entering as a heavy favorite.
Iowa (20-11)
The Hawkeyes took on Northwestern in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, Thursday. Iowa is another team that had a strong start, but seemed to become scared of its own shadow after Groundhog Day. Sitting at 19-6 on Feb. 15, Iowa went just 1-5 to finish the season, including a loss to Illinois on the Hawkeyes’ home court in the season finale. Though the swoon seems to be coming at a bad time, Iowa is still one of the best offensive teams in the country. Its offensive efficiency – as calculated by stats guru Ken Pomeroy – is fourth best in the nation, behind just Creighton, Duke and Michigan, who should all earn top-three seeds.
Tempo isn’t the only indicator for efficiency, since Wisconsin’s molasses offense is just behind at sixth in the nation. But Iowa averages just 14.9 seconds per offensive possession – fourth-fewest in the country – while Wisconsin plods around for 20.3 seconds. Like Michigan, this Iowa team isn’t a typical Big Ten unit. It wants to get up and down the floor quickly. The right matchups could give the Hawkeyes – currently projected as an 8-seed – a few surprise wins.
Oklahoma State (21-12)
The Cowboys should be safely in the field, but they’ll have to sit and wait to see their positioning after losing to Kansas in overtime on Thursday. Pegged by ESPN as a 9-seed, Oklahoma State seems to have rebounded nicely from a recent seven-game losing skid. It won four of its final five regular-season games and beat Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament.
At 21-12 overall, Oklahoma State lost all four of its overtime games and all three games during Marcus Smart’s suspension. It more resembles a 25-win team and has gone through plenty of adversity already this season. The tournament atmosphere won’t rattle the Cowboys like it did last year, when they were upset soundly by 12-seed Oregon in their first game.
Smart came back for his sophomore season specifically to vindicate that lackluster performance. As one of the best all-around players in the country, I wouldn’t put anything past him.
Rather than the little guys, this year’s Cinderellas could come from the power conferences. Keep an eye on these three and we’ll go over the full bracket next week.
Good luck to the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, who took on Cal State Northridge in Thursday’s Big West Tournament quarterfinals. Hopefully we’re yelling “Hana Hou!” today and not “Oh well.”
