Nobody saw this coming. As is usually the case during March Madness, the evaluators, prognosticators, algorithm-ors and yours truly were wrong about almost every team in the field. With the Final Four tipping tomorrow, just one top seed made it
Nobody saw this coming. As is usually the case during March Madness, the evaluators, prognosticators, algorithm-ors and yours truly were wrong about almost every team in the field. With the Final Four tipping tomorrow, just one top seed made it to the Atlanta showcase, along with a pair of 4-seeds that struggled towards the end of the regular season and a 9-seed that has already pulled a pair of major upsets.
Despite a muddled regular season that featured a musical chairs rotation of top-ranked teams, many pegged Louisville as the odds-on favorite to cut down the nets. Thus far, Rick Pitino’s Cardinals have not disappointed and were able to move past the gruesome Kevin Ware injury to continue their championship charge. Their four victories have come by an average margin of almost 22 points and their second-half domination of Duke in the regional final proved that if this team has a weakness, it hasn’t yet been identified.
Louisville will take on Wichita State, which has had some recent tournament success but never anything close to this magical run. The Shockers have done exactly what their name suggests, eliminating 1-seed Gonzaga in its second game, crushing fellow Cinderella LaSalle in the Sweet 16 and surviving against 2-seed Ohio State in the regional final.
Two storied programs headline the second matchup, but both faced its share of difficulties this season. Michigan reached as high as No. 4 in the country at one point this year, but lost three of its last six games entering the tournament — including an 84-78 loss to Penn State, which was 0-14 in Big Ten play to that point — and went from a possible top seed to the fourth line. Point guard Trey Burke, named the Associated Press Player of the Year on Thursday, has brought the Wolverines back to top form with a blowout of highly-touted VCU, a miracle comeback over top-seeded Kansas and a domination of 3-seed Florida.
Their opponent, the Syracuse Orange, has been nothing short of outstanding, crushing opening-round foe Montana by 47 points before topping Cal, stifling top-seed Indiana and smothering Big East rival Marquette. The vaunted Syracuse zone defense has been suffocating as it has allowed a staggering average of just under 46 points per game the past two weeks. This was an unexpected recovery for ‘Cuse, losers of five of its final nine regular season games, but Jim Boeheim got his team primed for another March run.
It’s very difficult to pick against Louisville in the night’s opening game. Wichita State has the type of physical team that can give the lengthy Cardinals some early trouble, but I think Louisville’s overall athleticism and playmaking ability will take over. Guards Russ Smith and Peyton Siva showed against Duke they can get to the rim at will in a pick-and-roll set. With more athletic big men than the Shockers have, Duke still had no answer. Wichita State will have to figure out a way to get the ball out of the guards’ hands early, a task at which I don’t see them succeeding. Louisville 71, Wichita State 57
The nightcap is much more interesting, as Michigan wants to get out and run, while Syracuse devours half-court offense. What Michigan has going for it is that Syracuse hasn’t seen a player like Burke. His competitive nature and feel for the moment have lifted the Wolverines a few times already. Syracuse’s answer is Michael Carter-Williams, a star in the making who has been dominant the past two games. Without a lockdown perimeter defender, his versatility is going to give Michigan fits. While it’s hard to argue with what Syracuse has done thus far, in these toss-up situations, I always go with the team that has the best player on the court. Michigan 57, Syracuse 52
• ‘My Thoughts Exactly’ appears Sundays, Wednesdays and Fridays in The Garden Island. Email David Simon your comments or questions to dsimon@thegardenisland.com. Follow David on Twitter @SimonTGI
