The NFL’s second season is about to commence, with four very interesting matchups kicking off the playoffs this wild-card weekend. Typically, one or two of the first week’s games are a bit mismatched, as a team that may have just
The NFL’s second season is about to commence, with four very interesting matchups kicking off the playoffs this wild-card weekend.
Typically, one or two of the first week’s games are a bit mismatched, as a team that may have just eeked into the playoffs is on the road to take on a division winner. That’s usually a recipe for a blowout, but none of the games this weekend appear to be headed in that direction.
N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati Bengals
The first game of the weekend is a rematch from Week 17, with the New York Jets traveling to Cincinnati to face the Bengals. The Jets needed to win that last game to get into the playoffs and they eliminated all the drama early on, cruising to a 37-0 win.
Granted, the Bengals had nothing to play for and seemed happy enough to give the game away once they trailed by double-digits. But the Jets must be feeling very confident about the matchup, as does the rest of the country. The spread for this game opened up with Cincinnati as a four-point favorite. It has since been bet down to two and a half.
So everyone seems the think the Jets are the better team, or just match up better against the Bengals. I’m having a tough time making the same assumption.
No, Cincinnati is not a great team and struggles to move the ball with its passing game. But the Jets’ main strength is their pass defense, a weapon that may be neutralized if the Bengals elect to merely pound away on the ground. Teams have run on the Jets with success.
Then the Mark Sanchez factor comes into play. Yes, he has won four of his last five starts, but these last two (Colts, Bengals) virtually turned into exhibition games and Sanchez only threw for 169 yards combined and no touchdowns in those.
In the wins over the Panthers and Bills, he threw for 258 combined yards, one touchdown and one interception. I know a win is a win, but it seems they may be winning despite his efforts, rather than because of them.
In any event, I get the feeling the public is putting a little too much stock into this recent Jets run than it deserves.
THE PICK:
BENGALS 19, JETS 13
Philadelphia Eagles
at Dallas Cowboys
The Saturday night primetime game will be another rematch of a Week 17 blowout as the Philadelphia Eagles head south to take on the NFC East champion Dallas Cowboys.
This past week’s game was for the division title and Philly had every reason to want the game. Dallas just dominated in every facet and took the crown for itself.
Now Tony Romo, Felix Jones and the rest of the ‘Boys will be asked to do it for a third time this season. If they are to be successful, they will have to limit the big-play potential the Eagles still possess.
Wide receiver DeSean Jackson has become maybe the most dynamic receiver in the league and had chances to make big plays in Sunday’s 24-0 loss, but a number of throws from Donovan McNabb were off the mark. It would seem foolish to think that McNabb, though not the most accurate quarterback, would continue to miss Jackson down the field. Dallas will need to sure up its secondary and keep Jackson in front of them, though not many in the league have figured out exactly how to do that.
Offensively, Tony Romo turned in the most complete season of his career. He had a career-high 4,483 yards passing, as well as a career-low nine interceptions, while tossing 26 scores. He’s thrown more than one pick only once this season — a three-INT game against the Giants way back in Week 2.
While the “can’t win in December” label is now probably gone for good (Romo won the final three games of the season, including ending the Saints’ undefeated streak), what isn’t is the fact that he is 0-2 in the postseason, including the infamous fumble against the Seahawks in 2006.
Entering last week, the Eagles were playing the best football of any NFC team. That may no longer be the case and the Cowboys are a four-point favorite at home this week.
Prior to the last game, I thought the Eagles were the far superior team. Now it looks like Dallas has their number. I think the Cowboys make it a season sweep.
THE PICK:
COWBOYS 30, EAGLES 23
Baltimore Ravens
at New England Patriots
Sunday’s early game will feature two perennial AFC powers as the Patriots and Ravens tangle in Foxborough, but each squad has been truly enigmatic all season.
Let’s start with the Ravens. They finished the season 9-7, but five losses to the Patriots, Bengals, Vikings, Colts and Steelers were by a combined 16 points. The other two losses were to the Bengals, again, and Packers by 10 and 13 points, respectively.
There are two ways to see those numbers. One way is to think that this is a team that really could have won 13 or 14 games and beaten many of the league’s best along the way.
The other is to say that they have some glitch that doesn’t allow them to win close games, even though they might be as good as anyone.
Quarterback Joe Flacco has looked like a star some weeks, while appearing very average in others. I still think he’s eventually a top-tier quarterback, but I expected more consistency from him in his second NFL season.
The running back combination of Ray Rice and Willis McGahee is the best duo in the playoffs and the defense has enough playmakers to make up for its age and mediocre cornerbacks.
Though the Patriots (10-6) were never really in danger of losing the division, not many would consider this a very successful season to this point. They went 4-4 down the stretch and seem to be limping in after the devastating ACL injury to the game’s most reliable receiver, Wes Welker.
The lack of a running game puts the pressure squarely on Tom Brady’s shoulders, which used to be just fine with him, as well as Pats fans. But without Welker as a security blanket, Brady could have just a hint of hesitation when he drops back into the pocket.
New England is a three-point favorite, which seems exactly right to me. If this were in Baltimore, I’d love the Ravens’ chances. But their inability to win close games eliminated any chance at a postseason home game. That inability will show itself again this week.
THE PICK:
PATRIOTS 27, RAVENS 24
Green Bay Packers
at Arizona Cardinals
The final game is the third Week 17 rematch, something I can never remember happening. The Packers, winners of seven of eight, head to Arizona to face the Cardinals, a team that knows a little something about getting hot at the right time after last season’s improbable run to the Super Bowl.
Green Bay’s one loss over those past eight weeks was the one-point heartbreaker to the Steelers, giving up a touchdown on the game’s final play. So the Packers appear to be playing their best ball at the moment.
However, of their 11 wins, just three came against teams over .500, with those being the Cowboys, Ravens and Cardinals.
One of the most consistent images through the first 10 weeks of the season was quarterback Aaron Rodgers running for his life as the offensive line seemed completely unable — or unwilling — to block for him at all. They have somehow corrected this without changing personnel.
Defensively, they are very solid and have playmakers like Charles Woodson and Nick Collins, plus a strong linebacking corpe led by A.J. Hawk.
That secondary should have plenty of opportunities to prove its might as the Arzona aerial assault springs into action.
While Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are still the main component for this team’s success, the Cardinals were finally able to supplement their output with the running of Chris “Beanie” Wells.
The rookie running back went for 4.5 yards per carry on the season. Although he never had more than 17 carries in a game and went over 100 yards just once, teams now must honor the running game.
An important factor will be the availability of Boldin, who injured his left knee in the Week 17 contest. If he is unable to go, the Cardinals lose 84 receptions and 1,024 yards worth of production, though they do have a very capable backup in Steve Breaston (712 yards this season; 1,006 yards last season).
After the Cardinals opened as a slight favorite, this game has settled as a pick ‘em, meaning that the Packers would be the favorite on a neutral field. I think they are the better team and are playing much better ball than the Cardinals right now.
THE PICK:
PACKERS 26, CARDINALS 20
