Almost a year ago, as Americans troops were storming to victory in Iraq, the thought was unthinkable. Today, it is not. The Democrats have a real chance of defeating President Bush.
There are only two slogans in American politics: Stay the Course and It’s Time For a Change. All incumbents run on the first slogan, all challengers on the second, and right now, Americans are registering a sharp vote of “no confidence” in their president.
The latest ABC/Washington Post poll reveals why. The president’s approval rating is at 50 percent, down from a high of 77 percent last April. Even more striking: 57 percent say it’s time for a “new direction” in the country, while 41 percent favor “moving in the direction Bush has been taking us.”
Many ingredients comprise this stew of disillusionment. Voters think the president is too aligned with “special interests,” too intolerant of dissenting views, too willing to accept huge deficits, too out of touch with their economic problems.
An ability to connect with ordinary folks has always been one of Bush’s strongest assets, but today, only two out of five voters agree that “he understands the problems of people like (them).”
That’s today, not November. Outside events, from a revival of terrorism to a rebound in the economy, could scramble the race. And the landscape is littered with former foes who underestimated George Bush’s tenacity and nastiness. John McCain, Al Gore and Saddam Hussein all learned the same lesson: as the fight gets tougher, so does the president.
Moreover, Bush will spend more than $100 million on TV ads between now and the conventions, tearing down Kerry as a vacillator and playing up his own performance after 9/11. In our view, Bush has every right to use images from Ground Zero, and Democrats are only complaining because memories of that tragedy weigh so heavily in the president’s favor. Sixty-three percent still consider him a strong leader, and almost as many approve of his response to terrorism.
Kerry is nobody’s idea of a warm and charming candidate, and he has a 20-year record in the Senate to defend. Already Team Bush is hammering at an obscure bill Kerry once introduced to trim intelligence spending, and that is just the beginning. Only two sitting legislators have ever been elected president, and this is one of the main reasons — they’ve cast too many votes and made too many statements on too many issues.
The bottom line: Kerry’s support is soft. Among his backers, three out of five say they’re voting against the president, not for the challenger.
Still, Bush is in trouble. His new ads never mention Iraq, and for good reason. Fewer than half of all voters support his approach to that issue, and the cost in lives and money will only grow higher. That’s why Bush wants to focus on dead firefighters in Manhattan, not dead foot soldiers in Baghdad.
Moreover, Kerry can match Bush’s symbolism with heroic images of his own. Voters will have a choice between two stark examples of leadership and courage: Bush in the smoking ruins of Ground Zero, Kerry in the steaming jungles of Vietnam.
Kerry doesn’t have to win this fight; he just has to neutralize the advantage Republicans have long enjoyed on the issue of national security. Because when it comes to domestic questions, the Democrat is far ahead.
Take just one example, the famous question Ronald Reagan asked so effectively in 1980: Are you better off now than you were four years ago? Only 17 percent of those polled say “most Americans are better off financially” since Bush took office, while 43 percent say the country is “not as well off.”
Finally, Kerry seems determined to match his rivals blow for blow. Vice President Cheney recently criticized the Democrat as a timid and uncertain leader and quoted a soldier as saying, “indecision kills.” Within hours Kerry shot back: “Well let me tell you something Mr. Cheney, Mr. President — bad, rushed decisions kill, too.”
Kerry’s message is clear: he might be a rich and privileged preppie, but he’s no wimp. He’ll fight back. And, at this point, Democrats are more united than Republicans. In fact, one out of four Republicans (and three out of five independents) favor a “new direction” for the country, but only 18 percent of Democrats want to stick with Bush’s policies.
There’s a long way to go. But make no mistake: This is a real race.
Copyright 2004, United Feature Syndicate, Inc.
