On the edge of change

LIHUE — Next-level hurricanes, intense heat waves, death for corals and habitat loss for rare species are all potentials for the next hundred years, as well infrastructure wipe-out from a 3.2-foot sea level rise, according to scientists.

All that and more is included in the Hawaii-Pacific Islands chapter of the Fourth official U.S. National Climate Assessment, released Friday, in which authors say communities need to start making a plan.

On Kauai, that means looking at ways to shift coastal roadways and ports, fortify homes and businesses from stronger winds, mitigate the impacts of heavy flooding, and prepare emergency responders for heat waves.

And authors of the Assessment say now is the time to start action.

“Sea level rise is still in its slow phase, still in the early stages of threatening our coastal engineering, but globally it’s accelerating,” said Chip Fletcher, an expert on coastal infrastructure and sea level rise.

He continued: “If we wait, taking action to adapt to sea level rise will be more expensive than if we were to undertake the process now.”

When it comes to sea level rise, Hawaii scientists are already elbows-deep in research and the Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System Hawaii Sea Level Rise Viewer is already live online, giving the public the chance to see predictions on an interactive map.

The map shows parts of Kuhio Highway underwater with 3.2 feet of sea level rise, particularly on the north and east sides of the island, and flooding at Nawiliwili Harbor, and at the harbor some of that can already be seen.

“We’ve seen during the King Tides Nawiliwili was flooded,” Fletcher said. “Honolulu harbor has a big effort going on now to adapt the harbor to higher sea levels and I think it’d be appropriate for Kauai to engage in this type of activity.”

Kauai does have something of a leg-up in the sea level rise situation, since more stringent shoreline setback rules have kept development further away from the beaches and shores.

Fletcher says he thinks it gives the island a good chance of protecting its beaches for the future, but the rule needs to stand strong and be applied correctly in order for it to work.

He and his co-authors of the study suggest strengthening and continuing shoreline setbacks and a “general retreat from the shoreline” for development statewide.

“One of the elements of using that setback is to be sure to apply it for its purpose rather than give in to developers and homeowners who want to move closer to the shoreline,” Fletcher said.

Heat waves are something Hawaii’s never experienced, authors say, and these days-long flashes of extreme heat can take their toll on people, especially elderly people, children and people who are ill.

Suggestions are to bring emergency responders up to speed on how to respond to health crises during heat waves and strengthen community bonds so people care for each other during those times as well. Habitat for Kauai’s endangered forest birds and seabirds is already shrinking, with the mosquito line creeping further up the mountain and bringing with it avian malaria and other diseases.

Authors say that trend will continue, along with the already ongoing widespread coral reef bleaching and death.

“By mid-century these events are projected to occur annually, especially if current trends in greenhouse gas emissions continue. Bleaching and acidification will result in loss of reefs, leading to lower fisheries yields and loss of coastal protection and habitat,” the assessment says.

Hurricanes are going to be picking up speed and dropping more rain if predictions hold true, and the pathway is shifting. That’s putting Hawaii right in the crosshairs of the new path.

“There may not be actually more hurricanes in the Pacific, but many models are suggesting they are going to shift their pathway toward the poles, away from the equator, and this would put the hurricanes in our sector and more in our area,” Fletcher said.

Scientists predict storms are going to continue a trend of being wetter with a stronger intensity and a stronger storm surge — another reason to strengthen shoreline setbacks.

Homes need to be reinforced with hurricane clips and other tools, the assessment suggests, in order to be fully prepared.

Road closures due to flooding and king tides are already happening on Oahu, and throughout Hawaii the impacts of climate change are starting to rise with the surface of the ocean.

And authors of the report say now is the time to take action to both reduce greenhouse gasses and contributions to climate change, as well as prepare for impacts.

“This report makes it clear that climate change has arrived far sooner and as a greater threat than we previously thought,” said Dr. Victoria Keener of the East-West Center, the chapter’s regional lead. “Only by acting now can we hope to effectively manage these risks.”

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Jessica Else, environment reporter, can be reached at 245-0452 or at jelse@thegardenisland.com