LIHUE — For a small island that hosts a safe haven for the world’s tropical plants, some near extinction, predicting climate changes and weather patterns is essential.
Climate and weather patterns factor largely into Kauai’s agriculture, infrastructure and community planning as well, and a new University of Hawaii project to troubleshoot climate models could help the island prepare for the future.
Inside the International Pacific Research Center at UH-Manoa, senior researcher Hariharasubramanian Annamali is leading a project to identify modeling errors and increase the reliability of forecast predictions.
Identifying and improving processes in climate models that lead to reliable forecasts of droughts and tropical storms well in advance will allow policymakers ample time to plan and mitigate situations that arise from these events, said Annamali.
“These events have significant impacts on water resources and agriculture, defense-related operations, forest fires, air traffic and more,” he said.
He explains the project is akin to a doctor diagnosing why a patient is feeling unwell and that the tools will help determine why models aren’t meeting expectations.
“Our diagnostics will be user-accessible, flexible and adaptable such that they can be transitioned to any group of evaluations during model development,” said Annamali.
At Kauai’s National Tropical Botanical Garden resides the largest collection of native Hawaiian plant species and breadfruit varieties in the world. Thousands of plants — some that have disappeared from the wild — are housed in the NTBG gardens and in the nonprofit’s extensive seed bank.
Improved climate and weather models would be an asset to NTBG’s work, said Chipper Wichman, president, CEO and director at NTBG.
“It would help in many ways including making our gardens more resilient and better understanding the impact it will have on ecosystems,” he said. “We may have to consider assisted migration for some species and having the best climate change models are critical to getting that right.”
Laurel Brier, Kauai resident, said she can see many ways improved climate and weather models could help the island currently and in planning for the future.
But, she pointed out, people shouldn’t wait for better information in lieu of taking action.
It’s possible to use what is already known as a guide, she said, for things like land use and planning, securing infrastructure and food and water supplies, creating emergency-response plans and everything else that goes into preparing short term and long term for flooding, isolation, sea-level rise and other consequences of extreme weather conditions.
“At the same time we should try to improve our forecasting to help us be more purposeful, effective and knowledgeable in our responses,” Brier said.
State Department of Land and Natural Resources Division of Forestry and Wildlife Kauai branch manager Sheri Mann said climate change contributes to some predators’ ability to reach and access some endangered birds and plants, but action and focus is “on more critical problems than climate change, such as suppressing various predators and mosquito impacts on endangered birds.”
When it comes to things like historic preservation, Alan Downer, DLNR State Historic Preservation Division administrator, says many archaeological sites are in zones threatened by sea-level rise, including some of the oldest sites in Hawaii.
“Many more are threatened by re-emergence of wetlands resulting from the rise in the water table, which will rise with rising sea levels,” he said. “Better models will help SHPD figure out the areas where the threat is greatest so that SHPD can begin to develop policies as well as plans for addressing protection and management of those historic properties most at risk.
The region known as the U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands is no stranger to variable weather and climate. One of its dominant weather influencers is the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), an alternating pattern of abnormally warm and cool ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. ENSO can cause drought-like conditions in the southwest Pacific that persist for three or four seasons, as well as frequent cyclones and storms.
However, modeling errors can limit the reliability of forecasts, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is funding the project with a $508,000 grant from the NOAA Research Modeling Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) program.
Specific project outcomes will include a set of metrics that will help scientists quantify how accurately their models represent ENSO-related impacts and identify sources of model errors that reveal deficiencies to help inform model improvement decisions.
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Jessica Else, environment reporter, can be reached at 652-2045 or at jelse@thegardenisland.com.
